Sales velocity across the ultra luxury downtown Boston condo developments has been quite slow in 2010, save the Clarendon Back Bay with decent pace as the only true high-rise Back Bay condo development.  45 Province is averaging less than one sale per month, and with that pace, a developer and the financier could begin to get concerned.

The latest sale at 45 Province was a two-bedroom two-bathroom unit on the 26th floor accompanied by a single parking space.  The condo closed at $2,175,000, and with a little more than 2,000 square feet, it carried a $1,072 price per square foot value.

Clarendon Back Bay
Clarendon Back Bay Sales: 11
Clarendon Back Bay Average Sales Price: $1,147,909
Clarendon Back Bay Median Sales Price: $1,060,000
Clarendon Back Bay Average Price per Square Foot: $1,063

Boston W Hotel & Condos
Boston W Hotel & Condos Sales: 8
Boston W Hotel & Condos Average Sales Price: $581,250
Boston W Hotel & Condos Median Sales Price: $560,000
Boston W Hotel & Condos Average Price per Square Foot: $807

Given the slow rate of unit sales at the Clarendon (now the only true high-rise condo development in the Back Bay) and W Boston, there will be additional downward pressure on price, yet the sales figures noted above represent sales of units in the lower floors of each building, where prices are lower, and thus, there could be similarly strong upward pressure on prices as the buildings become absorbed into the Boston market.

The two most notable statistics that can be evaluated across the properties, of which 8 out of the 10 are Back Bay condos, are sales price to original listing price ratio and number of days on market.  Both statistics demonstrate a luxury market that is suffering from one of two ailments – overpricing or lack of demand.  Sales price to original listing price ratio for these 10 ultra-luxury units that closed in the past month was a paltry 77%.  Additionally, average number of days on market was 246.

There are some highlights in each of these statistics.  Related to price ratio, unit W9-D at the Back Bay Mandarin Oriental carried a sales price to original listing price ratio of 64% – originally listed at $3.9 million and finally selling at $2.5 million after 176 days on the market.  And from a days on market perspective, unit 1 at the Back Bay’s Meads of Commonwealth finally sold after 777 days on the market. 

These types of statistics demonstrate that while there is indeed activity in the luxury Boston condo market, at the highest levels, for the particular slice of time investigated, the buying public are taking ample time in flexing their muscles to purchase at price points that are significantly off of original listing prices.

Immediately following the auction, the sales team from the listing brokerage Campion & Company sold four additional homes to auction attendees at similar prices, about $1.4 million.  The $675 sales price per square foot at the auction is substantially lower than average price per square foot sales prices of $956 for Back Bay condos that have sold for more than $1 million in the past six months.

Despite the flurry of activity that was kicked up by the auction at the Bryant Back Bay, the building still remains less than 50% sold, but with the new price point established by the auction event, buyers are looking more favorably upon the potential purchase at the Bryant, a building that sits on the border between the Back Bay and the South End.

The Bryant is a 50-unit luxury development that has sold 5 of its 50 units, and is looking to kick-start sales of its remaining inventory.  The building sits on the border between the Back Bay and the South End along Columbus Avenue, and offers large floor-through direct-elevator access condos that are southeast facing.

Pre-registration before the auction date is a must, previews are available September 22 – October 16 (Monday to Sunday noon – 6 PM) onsite at 303 Columbus Avenue Boston, MA 02116.  The actual auction will be held on Saturday, October 17, 2009 at the The Colonnade Hotel located in the Back Bay at 120 Huntington Avenue Boston, MA 02116.

The Benjamin Mansion (74 Beacon Street) offers essentially every amenity under one roof that an owner could ask for, in one of the most central locations in downtown Boston. Deeded parking and one parking space at the nearby Brimmer Street Garage is also included.

The Beacon Hill neighborhood as a housing market has stayed relatively resilient over the past year, however, we are seen slowdowns in market velocity and a decrease in average price per square foot.  Nonetheless, Beacon Hill condos are selling, on average, faster now than they did one year ago.  Some year-on-year comparisons for the first quarter of the year are located below.

January 1, 2008 – March 27, 2008
Beacon Hill Condos Sold: 36
Beacon Hill Average Sales Price: $676,476
Beacon Hill Median Sales Price: $377,500
Beacon Hill Average Price per Square Foot: $722
Beacon Hill Average Days on Market: 113

January 1, 2009 – March 27, 2009
Beacon Hill Condos Sold: 21
Beacon Hill Average Sales Price: $622,110
Beacon Hill Median Sales Price: $495,000
Beacon Hill Average Price per Square Foot: $681
Beacon Hill Average Days on Market: 125

The last condo sale that took place at Louisburg Square was at 1 Louisburg Square unit 5, a 683 square foot 1 bedroom 1. bathroom penthouse condo with an assigned parking space that went under agreement in 3 days at full asking price of $899,000 and sold December 22, 2008.  This represented a price per square foot of approximately $1,316, which rivals ultra luxury condo developments across various neighborhoods in Boston.

While some Boston neighborhoods are staying relatively flat, South End condos have shown some backward steps at different levels, including both average and median price points.  It’s important to consider both median and average prices when looking at Boston real estate market statistics because averages can be pulled significantly one way or the other with only a small number of outlying data points, thus, the combination of the two statistics will provide a more comprehensive view of the market.

According to the Boston MLS, Boston’s South End is one neighborhood that has stayed relatively flat over the past year, but has showed signs of slowing down on various fronts.  For instance, during the first 3 months of 2008, 82 properties in the South End were sold, while in 2009, the market velocity in the South End has slowed to 36 properties sold.  This represents an approximate 36% slowdown in the number of units that sold during the same period in 2008 and 2009.  2008 South End median condo price, as well as average price, were $550,000 and $641,473 respectively, where in 2009 thus far, we see $518,500 and $609,936, roughly a 5-6% decline.  Still, condos in the South End’s best locations are performing well (see South End Condos for Sale).

Tighter lending practices in 2009, which are beginning to loosen, could be the main culprit for the slowdown in the number of units sold, bearing in mind that this particular statistic lags the market given that the average time to close on a condo in Boston is anywhere from 30-60 days (that said, condos that are showing sold in the first quarter of 2009 were actually being put under agreement in December 2008 and January 2009, when lending was significantly tighter than what it is currently).  As for prices, perhaps this is a function of supply and demand market forces.  The supply of homes has decreased, yet the demand from buyers who actually can qualify and make a purchase has decreased much more, until these forces can level off, which we are starting to see, it’s no wonder that a decline in the 5% range is present.